EV Explained

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Overview:

What is EV and how does it work?

 


Answer:

EV stands for Expected Value and is a mathematical formula based on when a hand goes all-in before the river.


An EV line in a graph is the same stat that you see in the reports section called $ (EV adjusted).

So how do we interpret the line to see if we're running hot or cold? We'll define a few stats first.

 

 

 


EV $ Diff (found in the Hands Tab)

This is calculated by taking your equity% of the total pot when you go all in and comparing that to what you actually won. So let's say I go all in with AA on an Axx flush draw flop against a flush draw. I'm 80.5% to win with my set in a $400 pot.

80.5% x $400 = $322 so what it's saying is on average that I should win approximately $322 on average when I go all in with a set of Aces here vs. his flush draw. 

If I win, I would win $400, so I've won $78 more than I would on average i.e running good/okay.


If I lose, I win $0, so I'm running $322 worse off than I would on average so im running bad.

EV $ Diff is displayed as minus when you win more than you should and a + sign when you lose more than you would with average luck. So in the examples above, when I lost with AA as a big favorite, my EV $ Diff would be displayed as +$322.

This is calculated by taking the actual amount won and either deducting or adding the amount you would have won with average luck.






All-In EV Line in Graph (Also $ EV Adjusted stat in the Reports tab)


This is calculated by taking the actual amount won and either deducting or adding the amount you would have won with average luck.

Example: Again let's use the scenario above where we had a set of Aces and got all in on the flop versus a flush draw with 80.5% equity in a $400 pot and let's say we won. The actual won is $400 but with average luck we would have only won $322, so we're running $78 better than someone with average luck.

 

Here is what a graph with an all in EV line would look like.

 

 

 

 ev-graph.jpg

 

Some important things to note about EV:

  1. All-in EV is only calculated based on hands which were all in before the river since equity on the river will always be 0% or 100%. Hence, the river is irrelevant.

 

  1. If you get 95% of your stack in on the turn and the final 5% in on the river, then it takes your equity on the street you got all in on. 

 

 


Note:  EV is calculated at the point in which everyone is all-in.  Calculating it any other way would be biased since we don't know what hands people might have folded.

Example:  You have JJ VS two other players with larger stacks with AK and QQ. You get all in, the other players call. Flop is AK5 and QQ folds, is your pre-flop EV 55% (pair VS AK) or 20% (JJ VS QQ and AK)? We can't know because we don't know what people fold.

 

 

 

 

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